Morning Market Brief - 2026-04-24
Morning Market Brief - 2026-04-24
As of April 23, 2026, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.3% and the 2-year yield at 3.79%, resulting in a spread of 0.51 percentage points. This shift suggests a market expectation of sustained economic growth and potential inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve's current [policy rate](https://aksoycapital.com/glossary/policy-rate.html) stands at 3.64%, indicating a cautious approach to monetary tightening amid these developments. ([federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/?utm_source=openai))
U.S. Indices
Major U.S. equity indices experienced modest declines:
- S&P 500 [ETF](https://aksoycapital.com/glossary/exchange-traded-fund-etf.html) (SPY): $708.45, down 0.39%
- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): $651.42, down 0.56%
- Dow Jones ETF (DIA): $493.00, down 0.36%
- Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): $275.52, down 0.35%
- Total Market ETF (VTI): $349.80, down 0.40%
Top Movers
Top Gainers:
- Texas Instruments (TXN): $282.23, up 19.43%
- Microchip Technology (MCHP): $90.64, up 9.89%
- Comcast (CMCSA): $31.64, up 7.73%
- NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): $241.16, up 6.83%
- Analog Devices (ADI): $403.88, up 5.89%
Top Losers:
- ServiceNow (NOW): $84.78, down 17.75%
- Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): $466.70, down 9.20%
- Salesforce (CRM): $173.30, down 8.69%
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): $26.75, down 8.33%
- IBM (IBM): $231.08, down 8.25%
Global Markets
Europe:
- FTSE 100 (UK): 10,442.71, down 0.14%
- DAX (Germany): 24,286.34, up 0.54%
- CAC 40 (France): 8,216.27, down 0.13%
- Euro Stoxx 50: 5,914.95, up 0.34%
Asia:
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): 59,716.18, up 0.97%
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 25,978.07, up 0.24%
- Shanghai Composite (China): 4,079.90, down 0.33%
- TSX Composite (Canada): 33,912.90, down 0.12%
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $94.50, down 1.41%
- Brent Crude: $98.25, down 6.49%
- Natural Gas: $2.69, up 2.91%
- Gold: $4,721.90, up 0.36%
- [Silver](https://aksoycapital.com/glossary/silver.html): $75.90, up 0.58%
- Platinum: $2,002.00, down 1.02%
- Copper: $6.02, down 0.96%
Money Market / Rates Curve
- Federal Funds Rate: 3.64%
- [SOFR](https://aksoycapital.com/glossary/sofr.html) (Overnight): 3.64%
- 1-Month [T-Bill](https://aksoycapital.com/glossary/t-bill.html): 3.68%
- 3-Month T-Bill: 3.69%
- 6-Month T-Bill: 3.72%
- 1-Year Treasury: 3.69%
- 10-Year TIPS Real Yield: 1.92%
Macro and FX
- VIX: 18.92
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.3%
- 2-Year Treasury Yield: 3.79%
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.51 percentage points
- DXY (Dollar Index): 98.61
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.64%
Crypto
- Bitcoin (BTC-USD): $78,260.32, down 0.01%
- Ethereum (ETH-USD): $2,331.05, down 0.02%
Top Stories Driving Markets
- Geopolitics: On April 12, 2026, President Trump announced a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of weekend talks with Iran. This development led to a surge in energy prices and a decline of over 1% in Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures. The heightened inflation risk prompted a repricing of rate-cut expectations. ([schwab.com](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond-market-iran-inflation-interest-rates?utm_source=openai))
- Geopolitics: On April 12, 2026, Vice President Vance departed Islamabad without securing an agreement with Iran, citing the refusal to halt Iran's nuclear program. This diplomatic impasse spurred a safe-haven bid in gold and Treasuries, while the U.S. dollar firmed against emerging market currencies. ([schwab.com](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond-market-iran-inflation-interest-rates?utm_source=openai))
- Commodity: On April 12, 2026, Brent crude oil prices surged past $100 due to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Energy ETF flows surged into XLE, while airline and transport equities weakened on fuel-cost fears. ([schwab.com](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond-market-iran-inflation-interest-rates?utm_source=openai))
- Policy: On April 13, 2026, central bank rate-cut expectations were scaled back on fresh inflation concerns. Fed funds futures implied a reduced probability of a near-term cut, and the yield curve steepened modestly. ([schwab.com](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond-market-iran-inflation-interest-rates?utm_source=openai))
- Earnings: On April 13, 2026, the Q1 2026 earnings season opened with a focus on large banks. Anticipation lifted the KBE and XLF ETFs in pre-market trading, with results from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup scheduled this week. ([schwab.com](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond-market-iran-inflation-interest-rates?utm_source=openai))
- Economy: On April 13, 2026, European indices opened lower due to geopolitical tensions and energy shocks. The FTSE, DAX, and CAC all slipped at the open, with defensive sectors leading while autos and airlines lagged. ([schwab.com](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond-market-iran-inflation-interest-rates?utm_source=openai))
What to Watch Today
- Before Market Open: Fastenal (FAST) is scheduled to release its Q1 earnings report. As the first major industrial distributor to report this quarter, its results may provide insights into small-cap industrial demand.
- Throughout the Day: Multiple Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are scheduled to speak this week. Market participants will be attentive to any shifts in tone regarding inflation, especially in light of recent energy price increases.
- April 14 Pre-Market Onwards: The Q1 bank earnings season continues with reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. Investors will focus on net interest margin commentary and credit loss guidance.
- April 14, 8:30 AM ET: The Producer Price Index (PPI) for March is scheduled for release. A hotter-than-expected print could further erode near-term rate-cut expectations.
- April 15, 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales data for March will be released. A weak print could revive recession concerns.
- April 15, 10:30 AM ET: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report. This post-Hormuz-risk