A dot plot is a graphical representation of individual policymakers' projections for the target federal funds rate at future dates. Each dot on the chart corresponds to one committee member's view, and the dots are grouped by horizon (for example year-end projections for the next two years and the longer-run rate). The collection of dots shows the distribution of opinions about where policy could land, with more dots at a given rate indicating a higher level of agreement among participants.
The dot plot is released after FOMC meetings as part of the SEP. Market participants and analysts compare the dots to prior releases and to the incoming data to gauge how policymakers' views are shifting. The central tendency, such as the median projection, is sometimes highlighted, and movements from one meeting to the next can signal changes in policy expectations, even if the committee does not issue a single trajectory.
The dot plot reflects individual judgments rather than a formal forecast or promise. Projections can change with new data, changes in the macro outlook, or shifts in policy assumptions. As with any such chart, it should be read in context with accompanying statements and the broader economic outlook.
In the latest SEP release, the dot plot showed several dots near the current rate for year-end while others trended higher, illustrating a range of views among policymakers.
Federal Reserve · FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) · Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) · Federal funds rate · Monetary policy · Policy path