Backwardation is a futures-market condition in which the prices of near-term futures contracts are higher than those of longer-dated contracts, causing the futures curve to slope downward toward maturity. This is the opposite of contango, where futures prices rise with longer maturities.
In derivatives markets, backwardation can reflect stronger demand for immediate delivery or a higher perceived value of holding the physical asset now (the convenience yield) relative to later delivery. Market participants may also price in expectations about future supply, storage costs, and financing costs that affect the carry of the underlying asset. The shape of the futures curve is one of several signals used to gauge market conditions, along with spot prices, inventory levels, and macro factors.
Backwardation tends to be more common in markets facing tight nearby supply or high immediate demand. For traders and risk managers, the curve shape influences rollout decisions and basis risk, since rolling a position from near-term to longer-dated contracts can behave differently than in a contango market. In any case, backwardation is a market condition, not a forecast, and it can be temporary or persistent depending on supply, demand, and storage dynamics.
Example: In a commodity market showing backwardation, near-term futures contracts trade at higher prices (e.g., near-month at $105) than longer-dated contracts (e.g., 6-month at $100).
Contango · Futures contract · Spot price · Convenience yield · Roll yield · Normal backwardation